OPEC and Russian Federation rule out immediate output boost

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Some have said softening demand from trade tensions between the US and China to offset loss of Iranian supply, but Tradition's McGillian said that unless trade tensions show signs of eroding Chinese demand, oil prices will surge further.

In contrast, OPEC said demand for oil in OECD countries would fall from the early 2020s, but would still be the number one source of energy through to 2040.

Brent has gained about 18% so far this year - at times topping $80/bbl - as production cuts from OPEC and its allies, as well as robust demand growth, have supported prices.

"Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation ruled out any expeditious supply increases at the Algeria meeting while decidedly ignoring US President Trump's call to increase supplies and ease price pressures".

Commodity traders Trafigura and Mercuria said Brent could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and pass $100 in early 2019, as markets tighten once USA sanctions against Iran are fully implemented from November. "My information is that the markets are adequately supplied".

"I do not influence prices", Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih told reporters on Sunday. The biggest source of new global supply, USA shale, is also experiencing growing pains as pipeline bottlenecks and workforce issues hamper growth.

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Mr Trump is no fan of the United Nations, which he criticised during the weekend for having "not lived up to" its potential. The penalties are a result of Trump's decision to withdraw the USA from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

The so-called "OPEC+" group, which includes the likes of Russia, Oman and Kazakhstan, met at the weekend to discuss a possible increase in crude output, but the upshot of the gathering was that the group was in no rush to do so.

Major oil companies took some solace from OPEC's assurances.

The Committee also expressed its satisfaction regarding the current oil market outlook, with an overall healthy balance between supply and demand. At the same time, global oil demand is nearing 100 million barrels per day, a historical high.

"We need to give serious thought to expand our partnership beyond this year to tackling the new challenges that appear ahead of us", he said.

Bank of America's main scenario is for oil prices next year of around US$80 a barrel, according to the note.

Wall Street bankers and hedge funds also saw some caveats to the bullish mood.

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Trump has repeatedly called for a hike in production by countries other than Iran to reduce oil prices, which have partially recovered since the December 2016 agreement, to trade close to $80 per barrel this month.

Worse, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are at their lowest since early 2015.

The organization's report asserts that nearly 95% of the increase in energy demand is accounted for by developing countries (including China and India), with an average annual growth of 1.9%.

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"Were they do so the oil market would be even more uncomfortably tight than we forecast for 2019 as spare capacity is eroded", Mr Bell added.

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